Housing Starts in Canada Essentially Unchanged in May: CMHC
Housing starts in Canada were trending at 182,756 units in May compared to 182,971 in April, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)1 of housing starts.
“The trend in total housing starts was essentially unchanged in May as gains in the multiple starts segment partly offset the moderation in activity that was observed in previous months, especially in Atlantic Canada and Ontario. As a result, the trend in housing activity remains close to its historical average and is in-line with estimates of household formation,” said Mathieu Laberge, Deputy Chief Economist at CMHC.
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite volatile from one month to the next.
The standalone monthly SAAR was 200,178 units in May, an increase from 175,922 in April. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 14.6 per cent in May to 177,234 units, led by a 22.2 per cent rise in multiple urban starts to 114,346 units. Single urban starts increased by 3.0 per cent to 62,888 units in May.
May’s seasonally adjusted annual rates of urban starts increased in Atlantic Canada and Ontario, and were essentially unchanged in the Prairies. Urban starts decreased in British Columbia and Quebec.
Rural starts2 were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 22,944 units in May.
Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables.
As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.
1 All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) — that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.
2 CMHC estimates the level of starts in centres with a population of less than 10,000 for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, CMHC conducts the survey in these centres and revises the estimate.
Information on this release:
CMHC Media Relations
|April 2013||May 2013|
|Trend1, all areas||182,971||182,756|
|SAAR, all areas||175,922||200,178|
|SAAR, rural areas||21,330||22,944|
|SAAR, urban centres2|
|Atlantic, urban centres2||4,451||9,425|
|Quebec, urban centres2||32,994||31,146|
|Ontario, urban centres2||46,054||67,429|
|Prairies, urban centres2||48,083||47,926|
|British Columbia, urban centres2||23,010||21,308|
|Canada||May 2012||May 2013|
|Actual, all areas||19,744||18,301|
|Actual, rural areas||2,206||2,319|
|Actual, urban centres2|
|May — Single-detached||6,480||6,128|
|May — Multiples||11,058||9,854|
|May — Total||17,538||15,982|
|January to May — Single-detached||24,231||22,037|
|January to May — Multiples||50,830||38,430|
|January to May — Total||75,061||60,467|
1 The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR).
2 Urban centres with a population of 10,000 and over.
Detailed data available upon request