October 2013 Housing Starts in Canada: CMHC
Housing starts in Canada were trending at 195,338 units in October compared to 191,557 in September, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR)1 of housing starts.
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“The trend in total housing starts has gained momentum since July, which is in line with expectations that new construction would strengthen over the second half of 2013. Gains since July have been broad-based, reflecting increased activity in large and small urban centres, particularly in Ontario and, to some extent, in British Columbia. Housing starts remain on target with our projected total for 2013, which is expected to range between 179,300 and 190,600 units,” said Mathieu Laberge, Deputy Chief Economist at CMHC.
CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of the state of the housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading in some markets, as they are largely driven by the multiples segment of the markets which can be quite volatile from one month to the next.
The standalone monthly SAAR was 198,282 units in October, an increase from 195,929 in September. The SAAR of urban starts was essentially unchanged at 177,434 units in October. Multiple urban starts registered a slight increase of 0.9 per cent to 115,011 units in October while the single urban starts segment saw a decrease of 1.7 per cent to 62,423 units.
In October, the seasonally adjusted annual rate of urban starts increased in Ontario while decreasing in British Columbia, Atlantic Canada, the Prairies, and Quebec.
Rural starts2 were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 20,848 units.
Preliminary Housing Starts data is also available in English and French at the following link: Preliminary Housing Starts Tables
As Canada’s national housing agency, CMHC draws on more than 65 years of experience to help Canadians access a variety of high quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions. CMHC also provides reliable, impartial and up-to-date housing market reports, analysis and knowledge to support and assist consumers and the housing industry in making informed decisions.
1 All starts figures in this release, other than actual starts and the trend estimate, are seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) — that is, monthly figures adjusted to remove normal seasonal variation and multiplied by 12 to reflect annual levels. By removing seasonal ups and downs, seasonal adjustment allows for a comparison from one season to the next and from one month to the next. Reporting monthly figures at annual rates indicates the annual level of starts that would be obtained if the monthly pace was maintained for 12 months. This facilitates comparison of the current pace of activity to annual forecasts as well as to historical annual levels.
2 CMHC estimates the level of starts in centres with a population of less than 10,000 for each of the three months of the quarter, at the beginning of each quarter. During the last month of the quarter, CMHC conducts the survey in these centres and revises the estimate.
| September 2013 | October 2013 | |
|---|---|---|
| Trend1, all areas | 191,557 | 195,338 |
| SAAR, all areas | 195,929 | 198,282 |
| SAAR, rural areas | 18,466 | 20,848 |
| SAAR, urban centres2 | ||
| Single-detached | 63,497 | 62,423 |
| Multiples | 113,966 | 115,011 |
| Total | 177,463 | 177,434 |
| Atlantic, urban centres2 | 9,130 | 8,410 |
| Quebec, urban centres2 | 31,694 | 30,524 |
| Ontario, urban centres2 | 57,811 | 68,227 |
| Prairies, urban centres2 | 49,212 | 46,355 |
| British Columbia, urban centres2 | 29,616 | 23,918 |
| Canada | October 2012 | October 2013 |
| Actual, all areas | 18,007 | 17,033 |
| Actual, rural areas | 1,895 | 1,813 |
| Actual, urban centres2 | ||
| October — Single-detached | 5,732 | 5,333 |
| October — Multiples | 10,380 | 9,887 |
| October — Total | 16,112 | 15,220 |
| January to October — Single-detached | 56,208 | 52,389 |
| January to October — Multiples | 106,391 | 87,226 |
| January to October — Total | 162,599 | 139,615 |
Source: CMHC
1 The trend is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR).
2 Urban centres with a population of 10,000 and over.
Detailed data available upon request
www.cmhc. ca
