Royal LePage Canada Q3 2023 Home Price Update and Market Forecast

Royal LePage Canada trims year-end price forecast after sluggish third quarter. Despite weakened activity, Canadian home prices expected to remain stable for remainder of 2023.

While many Canadians have adjusted to the increased cost of borrowing, elevated interest rates continue to impact activity in markets across the country, keeping some buyers and sellers stuck on the sidelines. During the third quarter, inventory rose and sales activity softened, although this did not necessarily translate into steep price declines. Canada’s chronic shortage of housing supply is keeping property prices relatively stable.

Expect stable home prices through remainder of 2023 despite lower sales volumes.

Third quarter highlights:

• Aggregate price of a home in Canada expected to increase 7.0% in Q4 2023 compared to same period last year, a slight decrease from the previous forecast of 8.5%
• National aggregate home price increased 3.6% year over year in Q3 2023, decreased 0.8% on a quarter-over-quarter basis
• Aggregate home prices in greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver posted modest quarterly declines in Q3 of 2.8% and 1.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, Greater Montreal Area posted 0.6% aggregate price increase quarter over quarter
• More than half (57%) of regional markets in the report posted a quarter-over-quarter decline in Q3 as activity softened
• Royal LePage applauds federal government’s GST rebate policy aimed at incentivizing new construction of purpose-built rental housing

“With activity slowing, home prices softened in some of our major markets over the last three months, following a stronger-than-expected second quarter. Prices remain up on a year-over-year basis, with today’s stable market standing in sharp contrast to the steep declines experienced in the third quarter of 2022,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “While trading volumes in most regions remain sluggish, Canada’s housing market is on solid footing, with pent-up demand building. We don’t anticipate a material change in property prices through the remainder of the year.”

View the DATA CHART (includes Cambridge, Guelph, Kitchener-Waterloo): royal_lepage_national_house_price_composite_in_the_third_quarter_of_2023-incl-guelph

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