Royal LePage House Price Survey Q1 2022
Persistent demand coupled with low inventory drives 2022 home price forecast higher to 15%!
Seller’s market conditions continue as we move into the spring market, despite rising prices, further expected interest rate hikes and economic uncertainty.
First quarter highlights:
- National aggregate home price soars 25.1% year-over-year in first quarter of 2022 – highest Q1 gain on record
- Kingston, Ontario, posts highest year-over-year aggregate and detached home price gains in Canada for the second straight quarter
- Four markets in Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe region report median single-family detached home prices above $1 million for first time
- Early signs of moderation appear as some urban markets unveil improved conditions for buyers
- Promising new federal and provincial policies aimed at tackling housing availability and affordability not expected to provide relief in 2022
According to the Royal LePage House Price Survey released today, the aggregate price of a home in Canada increased 25.1 per cent year-over-year to $856,900 in the first quarter of 2022; the highest gain on record since the Company began tracking aggregate prices. As strong buyer demand continues to outpace supply in almost every market from coast to coast, Royal LePage is forecasting continued strong seller’s market conditions this spring.
“Entering 2022, we had anticipated a strong first half, and moderating real estate markets thereafter. Call it buyer fatigue or easing demand, these periods of uncomfortably high home price appreciation do run their course. We are seeing the first signs of moderation in some regions, as more inventory is becoming available and competition eases slightly,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “The first quarter of the year was so strong, however, that we are bumping up our 2022 outlook. And, home prices will continue to climb in the months ahead as a result of our relentless low supply-high demand imbalance.”
Soper added that while the Bank of Canada announcement of a 0.5 per cent interest rate increase will be a drag on demand, its impact will be relatively minor compared to the impact of sharply higher home prices. The central bank has indicated that it intends to continue to increase the overnight rate through 2023.
“It is worth noting that most Canadians with higher loan to value mortgages have successfully passed the stringent federal requirements of the OSFI mortgage stress test – they have proven that they can manage significantly higher rate increases than we anticipate they will see,” said Soper.
The Royal LePage National House Price Composite is compiled from proprietary property data, nationally and in 62 of the nation’s largest real estate markets. When broken out by housing type, the national median price of a single-family detached home rose 26.7 per cent year-over-year to $906,100, while the median price of a condominium increased 19.7 per cent year-over-year to $612,900. Price data, which includes both resale and new build, is provided by Royal LePage’s sister company RPS Real Property Solutions, a leading Canadian real estate valuation company.
While some properties were attracting fewer bids, listings in popular neighbourhoods that are priced appropriately are still commanding multiple offers and selling above the list price.
“There is a notable difference in buyer sentiment and behaviour today,” Soper continued. “Consumer confidence is being challenged as the lingering impact of the pandemic and worrisome geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe raises questions about the stickiness of inflation and the trajectory of interest rates. Yet, while there may be fewer bids on accurately priced properties, housing supply is so tight that multiple-offer scenarios remain the norm in most communities.”
In the first quarter of 2022, four cities in Ontario’s Golden Horseshoe region – Barrie, Cambridge, Kitchener-Waterloo and Oshawa – recorded median single-family detached home prices that crossed the million-dollar threshold for the first time, as Torontonians continue to search for affordable homes within a reasonable commuting distance while working partially or fully remotely.
Royal LePage is forecasting that the aggregate price of a home in Canada will increase 15.0 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2022, compared to the same quarter last year. The previous forecast, released in December, 2021, has been revised upward to reflect the continued strength of the market through the first quarter of the year.