Royal LePage’s 2024 Market Survey Forecast

 In Real Estate Market News

The ‘great adjustment’: Canadians to adapt to new reality as housing market returns to near-normal in 2024.

Royal LePage predicts minor interest rate cuts to fuel national aggregate home price increase of 5.5% year over year in fourth quarter of 2024.

Highlights:

  • Nationally, single-family detached and condominium prices forecasted to increase 6.0% and 5.0%, respectively, year over year in Q4 of 2024
  • Home prices are expected to show greatest increases in second half of 2024
  • Calgary aggregate home price projected to see greatest gains of all major markets at 8.0%
  • Aggregate price of a home in the greater regions of Toronto and Montreal are forecast to end next year 6.0% and 5.0% respectively above the final quarter of 2023, while Greater Vancouver is expected to see a more modest increase of 3.0%
  • Royal LePage forecast based on expectation that Bank of Canada will hold rates steady through first half of next year, and begin modestly easing rates in late summer or fall.

After years of unprecedented irregularity, Canadians may see the real estate market return closer to normal in 2024. According to the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate[1] price of a home in Canada is set to increase 5.5 per cent year over year to $843,684 in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the median price of a single-family detached property and condominium projected to increase 6.0 per cent and 5.0 to $879,164 and $616,140, respectively.[2]

“Looking ahead, we see 2024 as an important tipping point for the national economy as the majority of Canadians acknowledge that the ultra-low interest rate era is dead and gone,” said Phil Soper, President and CEO, Royal LePage. “We believe that the ‘great adjustment’ to tolerable, mid-single-digit borrowing costs will have a firm grip on our collective consciousness after only modest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.”

Home prices are expected to rise next year in all major markets across the country, with Calgary forecast to see the greatest gains. Throughout the second half of 2023, while prices have been declining in other cities, the Calgary real estate market has bucked the trend continuing on an upward price trajectory.

Royal LePage’s forecast is based on the prediction that the Bank of Canada has concluded its interest rate hike campaign and that the key lending rate will hold steady at five per cent through the first half of 2024. The central bank is expected to start making modest cuts in late summer or fall of next year. Meanwhile, several major financial institutions have already begun offering discounts on fixed-rate mortgages.

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